Maersk Group CEO Ke Wensheng recently stated that global trade has shown initial signs of rebound and the economic prospects next year are relatively optimistic.
More than a month ago, global economic barometer Maersk warned that global demand for shipping containers will shrink further as Europe and the United States face recession risks and companies reduce inventories. There is no sign that the destocking trend that has suppressed global trade activity will continue this year. Finish.
Ke Wensheng pointed out in an interview with the media this week: “Unless there are some unexpected negative conditions, we expect that entering 2024, global trade will slowly rebound. This rebound will not be as prosperous as in the past few years, but for sure… Demand is more in line with what we’re seeing on the consumption side, and there won’t be as much inventory adjustment.”
He believes that consumers in the United States and Europe have been the main driving force of this wave of demand recovery, and these markets continue to “provide unexpected surprises.” The coming recovery will be driven by consumption rather than the “inventory correction” that was so evident in 2023.
In 2022, the shipping line warned of sluggish consumer confidence, congested supply chains and weak demand as warehouses fill up with unwanted cargo.
Ke Wensheng mentioned that despite the difficult economic environment, emerging markets have shown resilience, especially India, Latin America and Africa. Although North America, like many other major economies, is faltering due to macroeconomic factors, including geopolitical tensions such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, North America looks set to be strong next year.
He added: “As these conditions start to normalize and resolve themselves, we will see a rebound in demand and I think emerging markets and North America are certainly the markets where we see the most upside potential.”
But as International Monetary Fund (IMF) President Georgieva recently emphasized, the road to global trade and economic recovery is not necessarily smooth sailing. “What we’re seeing today is disturbing.”
Georgieva said: “As trade shrinks and barriers increase, global economic growth will be hit hard. According to the IMF’s latest forecast, global GDP will grow at an annual rate of only 3% by 2028. If we want trade to rise again To be an engine of growth, then we have to create trade corridors and opportunities.”
She emphasized that since 2019, the number of new trade barrier policies introduced by various countries every year has almost tripled, reaching nearly 3,000 last year. Other forms of fragmentation, such as technological decoupling, disruptions to capital flows and restrictions on immigration, will also drive up costs.
The World Economic Forum predicts that in the second half of this year, geopolitical and economic relations among major economies will continue to be unstable and have a significant impact on supply chains. In particular, the supply of key products may be more affected.
Post time: Sep-19-2023